US Semiconductors Core Wars Q2 Preview

The semiconductor sector faces a bifurcation: strong growth in AI server CPUs is offsetting persistent declines in PC and smartphone units. The server CPU TAM is projected to reach $170bn by 2030, with ARM-based chips gaining significant share over x86 incumbents.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Demand for AI server CPUs remains strong, contrasting with ongoing challenges in PC and smartphone units (down 10-15%+ YoY).
• 2.The server CPU total addressable market (TAM) is projected to reach $170bn+ by 2030, driven by the expanding roles of AI compute nodes and agentic AI servers.
• 3.ARM-based architectures are emerging as the fastest market share gainers in the server CPU space, expected to capture ~50% value share by 2030.

Table of Contents

• US Semiconductors
• Core Wars Q2 Preview: insatiable demand for servers vs. not-so-much others
• The CPU debate: Higher frequency vs. higher core count
• AMD: beat/raise on server CPUs, MI455X first ramp
• INTC: stronger pricing likely offsets PC unit headwind
• ARM: near-term impacted by phones; server more 2H26
• Major CPU Stocks Reaction
• AMD: High-Core-Count CPU Advantages
• Upcoming catalyst: Advancing AI 2026 (July)
• INTC: Fully established IDM by CY30, EPS power $6+
• ARM: Separate IP & Chip Potentials
• NVDA: Rising content via CPU and others
• QCOM: U/P on mixed handset outlook
• AI Compute Table of Hierarchy
• $170bn+ Server CPU TAM
• Market share outlook analysis

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