Labor Market Watch US Jobs Preview Bullish At Halftime

BofA researchers anticipate a robust 110k rise in June payrolls, suggesting continued labor market stability. This strength supports their outlook for three Fed rate hikes in 2026.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Expect June payrolls to rise by 110k, driven by strength in the private sector.
• 2.The unemployment rate is expected to stay at 4.3% due to stabilization in the labor market.
• 3.A strong jobs report would likely support the Fed's path toward three rate hikes in 2026.

Table of Contents

• US jobs preview: bullish at halftime
• Sector job growth: broadening beyond education & health
• Downside risk: May surge from WC hiring or seasonality?
• HH data: u-rate to remain at 4.3%
• Fed: dissipating downside risks on labor to allow for hikes
• Breakeven: could be slightly higher than 20k/month
• Stable wages supportive of consumption, not inflationary

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