The BofA research team anticipates a hawkish 'hold' at the June FOMC meeting, featuring the removal of the easing bias and updated economic projections. The primary market risk remains Chair Warsh's inaugural press conference.
Key Takeaways
- 1.The June FOMC meeting is expected to result in a hold on rates with an easing bias removed from the statement.
- 2.Chair Warsh's press conference is the primary wildcard; his communication style and policy lean are central to market uncertainty.
Table of Contents
- Key takeaways
- Hawkish hold at the June FOMC meeting
- US Econ: hawks moving up field
- Statement: no defense for easing bias
- SEP: hawks on the offensive
- Macro projections: upsets unlikely
- Press conference: Warsh substitution a game changer?
- US rates: the real Kevin Warsh is about to stand up
- FX: 2-way risks for the USD
- Notable Rates and FX Research
- Rates, FX & EM trades for 2026
- Analyst Certification
- Disclosures
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Authors
Mark CabanaAditya BhaveAlex CohenMeghan SwiberShruti Mishra
Securities
2Y US Treasury NoteDXY
Themes
Monetary Policy TransitionInflation Persistence
Regions
GlobalUnited States