RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement Preview

ANZ expects the RBNZ to hold the OCR at 2.25% in May but signal a potential July hike towards a 3% neutral rate.

Key Takeaways

• 1.ANZ expects the RBNZ to hold the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 2.25% at the May 27 meeting.
• 2.The first OCR hike is forecasted for July 2026, with the RBNZ likely to signal 50/50 odds for this move.
• 3.Market terminal rate expectations (above 3.6%) are considered more aggressive than ANZ's projected 3% endpoint.

Table of Contents

• Laying the groundwork
• The view
• The data
• Pulling it all together
• Markets
• Meet the team
• Important Notice

Document Preview

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