NZ Insight: As You Were?

ANZ Research maintains its forecast for RBNZ rate hikes to reach 3%, though the recent sharp fall in global oil prices has increased the data-dependency of future policy decisions.

Key Takeaways

• 1.ANZ maintains its forecast for RBNZ rate hikes in July, September, and October, though conviction has lessened due to falling global oil prices.
• 2.The RBNZ's September Monetary Policy Statement may shift toward a more gradual hiking path or a lower peak OCR compared to previous May projections.
• 3.Economic data is the primary driver; while the oil price drop eases near-term inflation, it simultaneously supports a cyclically recovering economy.

Table of Contents

• Key points
• Oil prices sharply down
• Ambiguity
• A hiccup or the flu?
• The invisibles
• The starting point matters
• Putting it all together
• Meet the team
• Important Notice

Document Preview

Page 1 of 5

Subscribe for full accessStart Free Trial