NZ GDP Review

New Zealand's Q1 2026 GDP grew 0.8% q/q, bolstered by positive historical revisions that pushed annual growth to 1.5%. Despite a recent slowdown due to geopolitical factors, the data supports the RBNZ's path toward a 25bp rate hike in July.

Key Takeaways

• 1.New Zealand's economy grew 0.8% q/q in Q1 2026, meeting market forecasts but falling slightly short of ANZ's 1.0% expectation.
• 2.Upward revisions to Q4 2025 GDP significantly boosted the annual growth rate to 1.5%, exceeding all major institutional forecasts.
• 3.The RBNZ is still expected to hike rates by 25bp in July, supported by the recovery's underlying strength despite recent geopolitical shocks.

Table of Contents

• A good start to the year
• The big picture and monetary policy implications
• The details

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