Monetary Policy Expectations Analysis

This report outlines current market-implied interest rate paths for major central banks including the RBNZ, Fed, RBA, ECB, BoE, and BoC as of late May 2026.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Market pricing for New Zealand implies a significant tightening cycle, with the OCR expected to rise from 2.25% to 3.64% by September 2027.
• 2.UK interest rate expectations (SONIA) show a gradual upward trend, priced to reach 4.16% by April 2027 from a current level of 3.73%.
• 3.US Federal Funds Rate expectations remain relatively flat in the near term, with only a 22bps increase priced in through March 2027.

Table of Contents

• Monetary Policy Expectations Analysis
• Important notice

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