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May 28, 2026

Monetary Policy Expectations Analysis

Rates StrategyRates Govt BondsMacro Economic IndicatorsFinancials

This report outlines current market expectations for central bank policy rates in New Zealand, the US, Australia, Eurozone, UK, and Canada through 2027.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.New Zealand's Official Cash Rate (OCR) is priced to rise significantly from 2.25% to an estimated 3.61% by September 2027.
  • 2.The US Federal Funds Rate is expected to experience a modest upward trajectory, moving from an effective 3.63% to approximately 3.89% by late April 2027.
  • 3.Australia's policy rate is expected to peak at 4.56% in December 2026 before slightly easing back to 4.51% by May 2027.

Table of Contents

  • Monetary Policy Expectations Analysis
  • Important notice

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Authors

ANZ Economics and Markets Research

Securities

RBNZ OCREffective Federal Funds RateSONIA€STRON

Themes

Central Bank Policy TrajectoriesMarket Implied Pricing

Regions

Asia PacificNorth AmericaEuropeNew ZealandUnited StatesAustralia