Monetary Policy Expectations Analysis

This report outlines current and projected market-implied policy rates for major central banks through mid-2027. It highlights significant expected rate increases in New Zealand, the Eurozone, and the UK.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Market pricing implies significant tightening from the RBNZ, with the New Zealand Official Cash Rate expected to rise from 2.25% to 3.03% by December 2026.
• 2.The US Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a gradual hiking path, with the Effective Fed Funds Rate projected to reach 3.86% by late 2026 from a current base of 3.63%.
• 3.The Bank of England (UK) is priced for a 48bps increase by December 2026, reaching an expected rate of 4.21%.

Table of Contents

• Monetary Policy Expectations Analysis
• Important notice

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