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May 21, 2026

Monetary Policy Expectations Analysis

Rates StrategyRates Govt BondsOther

This report outlines current market expectations for central bank interest rate paths in New Zealand, USA, Australia, Eurozone, UK, and Canada through mid-2027.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.Market pricing indicates a projected increase in policy rates across all major monitored economies (NZ, USA, AU, Eurozone, UK, and Canada) through 2027.
  • 2.The New Zealand OCR is expected to rise significantly from a current rate of 2.25% to an estimated 3.63% by August 2027.
  • 3.The Australian cash rate is priced to move from 4.35% to approximately 4.70% by early 2027.

Table of Contents

  • Monetary Policy Expectations Analysis
  • Important notice

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Securities

Official Cash Rate (OCR)Effective Federal Funds Rate (FFR)SONIAEuro Short-Term Rate (ESTRON)

Themes

Central Bank Policy NormalizationMarket-Derived Rate Expectations

Regions

Asia PacificNorth AmericaEuropeNew ZealandUnited StatesAustralia