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May 20, 2026

Monetary Policy Expectations Analysis

Rates StrategyMacro Economic IndicatorsRates Govt BondsFinancials

This report provides a granular analysis of market-implied monetary policy rate expectations for New Zealand, USA, Australia, Eurozone, UK, and Canada through 2027.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.New Zealand's Official Cash Rate (OCR) is expected to rise steadily from the current 2.25% to 3.62% by August 2027.
  • 2.Market pricing for the US Federal Funds Rate suggests a path increasing to approximately 3.99% by April 2027.
  • 3.The UK's policy rate expectations show a significant upward trajectory, priced to reach 4.49% by April 2027 from a current SONIA rate of 3.73%.

Table of Contents

  • Monetary Policy Expectations Analysis
  • Important notice

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Authors

ANZ Economics and Markets Research

Securities

Official Cash Rate (OCR)Federal Funds Rate (FFR)SONIA€STRON

Themes

Global Monetary Tightening ExpectationsInterest Rate Path Divergence

Regions

Asia PacificNorth AmericaEuropeNew ZealandUnited StatesAustralia