Monetary Policy Expectations Analysis

This report details current market-implied expectations for central bank policy rates in New Zealand, USA, Australia, Eurozone, UK, and Canada through mid-2027.

Key Takeaways

• 1.New Zealand market pricing reflects significant expected tightening, with the OCR projected to rise 135 basis points from 2.25% to 3.60% by August 2027.
• 2.US interest rate expectations are notably flat compared to peers, with only 7 basis points of tightening priced in through April 2027.
• 3.The UK and Eurozone are pricing in steady increases in their respective overnight rates (SONIA and €STRON), reaching 4.35% and 2.62% respectively by April 2027.

Table of Contents

• Monetary Policy Expectations Analysis
• Important notice

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