ECB To Hike In June And September

ANZ forecasts the ECB will raise the deposit facility rate to 2.50% via two 25bp hikes in June and September 2026. This move is driven by a strategy of expectations management rather than current economic data, which shows weakening growth and headline inflation near target.

Key Takeaways

• 1.ANZ expects the ECB to hike interest rates by 25bp in both June and September 2026, reaching a terminal deposit facility rate of 2.50%.
• 2.The ECB's reaction function has shifted from data dependence toward expectations management to preserve credibility amid energy market shocks.
• 3.Economic fundamentals, including weak GDP growth and softening employment, do not currently justify tightening, but market pricing makes a hike the 'path of least regret'.

Table of Contents

• Authors
• Contact
• ECB to hike in June and September
• Conclusion
• Important Notice

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