Commodity Tracker

This report details the shifting dynamics in global commodity markets, highlighting declining oil inventories, stabilizing precious metals, and softening industrial activity in China.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Global oil product inventories are declining, with the drawdown centered in the Americas.
• 2.Energy-driven inflation fears are subsiding, stabilizing the gold price despite rising US inflation.
• 3.Industrial metals, particularly aluminum and copper, face mixed signals due to soft Chinese economic data offset by tight concentrate supply.

Table of Contents

• Commodity market scoreboard
• Energy
• Oil prices gave up geopolitical risk premium
• Supply flows to improve, but to remain below pre-conflict levels
• Slight pick-up in US supply amid increased drilling
• US fuel exports edge lower
• Mixed refinery margins, US strong margins keep run rates high
• Global oil product inventories continue to fall
• Drawdown in global oil inventories centred in America
• US crude oil stocks push further lower
• US SPR approaching operational limits
• Singapore oil product inventories drop sharply
• Investor positioning: falling longs and rising shorts
• Gas prices falling after the interim US-Iran peace deal
• LNG trade flows are set to rise once the strait opens
• Europe's gas inventories are low; more imports will be required
• Asian gas imports are recovering
• Precious metals
• Gold price stabilises as energy-driven inflation fears subside
• Long-term supportive drivers intact
• Investment positions are lean
• Structural rise in the share of investment demand
• Diverging gold imports in China and India
• Central bank gold purchases remain resilient
• Silver is finding its floor
• Silver spot tightness eased as supplies flow out of the US
• Imports are easing in China and India
• Easing market tightness in platinum and palladium
• Platinum's ETF holdings falling, unwinding of short positions
• Platinum's fundamentals remain mixed
• Critical minerals
• China's economic indicators signal soft industrial activity
• Weakening momentum indicators for industrial metals
• Stabilising aluminium production in the Middle East
• China's aluminium production elevated due to attractive margins
• Alumina flows to the Middle East recover
• China's aluminium exports to rise amid strong premium
• China's rising aluminium inventories showing soft demand
• COMEX copper premium is rising again
• Copper concentrate market remains tight
• China's rising spot premium reflecting strong restocking
• China's copper demand holding up well
• Battery metal prices recovering, but market surplus caps upside
• Bulks
• China's property indicators are mixed
• China's steel production moderating as margins worsen
• China's steel demand is weak, as reflected in rising inventories
• Weaker imports and strong mill offtake reducing iron ore stocks
• Iron ore exports are recovering from Australia

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