Zürcher Kantonalbank Research Hub

Zürcher Kantonalbank’s research into the US artificial intelligence landscape highlights a significant surge in infrastructure investment, with spending on computer equipment rising 60% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2026. However, analysts caution that the domestic economic impact of this capital expenditure is somewhat muted due to a heavy reliance on hardware imports from markets like Taiwan and Vietnam. Furthermore, the bank notes that statistical reporting often classifies hyperscaler spending as intermediate consumption, which can obscure its direct contribution to final demand figures. The research identifies an evolving macroeconomic trajectory, transitioning from an initial inflationary phase driven by rising electricity and component costs toward a second phase of productivity-led disinflation. Regarding the labor market, the institution posits that the Jevons paradox may apply, where increased efficiency through AI actually sustains or expands labor demand rather than displacing it. Overall, the bank provides a nuanced view of the AI boom, balancing high-growth data points with structural complexities and long-term deflationary potential.