Weekly Commentary: A Resilient Labor Market Delays Fed Cuts

Professor Siegel argues that the U.S. labor market remains too strong for immediate Fed rate cuts, though AI earnings are effectively buffering the market from energy shocks.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The labor market's resilience, characterized by strong private-sector hiring and low jobless claims, removes the urgency for Fed rate cuts.
• 2.The AI trade is currently insulating the market from geopolitical shocks and rising oil prices due to massive corporate earnings momentum.
• 3.U.S. energy intensity has fallen significantly, making the economy roughly 90% less oil-intensive than in the 1970s.

Table of Contents

• A Resilient Labor Market Delays Fed Cuts
• The June 17 Fed meeting
• Oil remains the major wildcard
• The AI trade
• Valuations
• The next CPI report

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