WisdomTree
Report published May 11, 2026
Weekly Commentary: A Resilient Labor Market Delays Fed Cuts (May 11, 2026)
WisdomTree · May 11, 2026
Professor Siegel argues that the U.S. labor market remains too strong for immediate Fed rate cuts, though AI earnings are effectively buffering the market from energy shocks.
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Key Takeaways
- 1.The labor market's resilience, characterized by strong private-sector hiring and low jobless claims, removes the urgency for Fed rate cuts.
- 2.The AI trade is currently insulating the market from geopolitical shocks and rising oil prices due to massive corporate earnings momentum.
- 3.U.S. energy intensity has fallen significantly, making the economy roughly 90% less oil-intensive than in the 1970s.
Table of Contents
- A Resilient Labor Market Delays Fed Cuts
- The June 17 Fed meeting
- Oil remains the major wildcard
- The AI trade
- Valuations
- The next CPI report
Report data
Key figures extracted from this report
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Wage Growth | 3.6% | Workers barely keeping pace with inflation. |
| Jobless Claims | 200,000 claims | Bottom of long-term range. |
| 10-Year Treasury Yield | 4.37% | Siegel believes it will settle in a 4.5% to 5% range. |
| S&P 500 Forward Multiple | 21-22 x earnings | Falls below 20x when excluding Magnificent Seven. |
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Authors / Editors
Jeremy J. Siegel · Senior Economist