Westpac RBNZ Client Pulse Survey

The May Westpac RBNZ Client Pulse Survey shows that while 83% of clients expect no change in the OCR this week, inflation expectations have surged, leading many to forecast multiple rate hikes by year-end.

Key Takeaways

• 1.A strong majority (83%) of survey respondents expect the RBNZ to maintain the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at the upcoming May meeting, though 15% anticipate a hike.
• 2.Inflation expectations have risen sharply, with nearly half of respondents expecting inflation to remain at 3% or higher two years from now.
• 3.The RBNZ is expected to signal a more aggressive tightening path, with most clients anticipating two to three rate hikes by the end of 2026.

Table of Contents

• Key take-outs
• What will the RBNZ do at its May meeting?
• RBNZ policy projection, end of 2026
• Where will the OCR actually be at the end of 2026?
• What factors could affect the RBNZ's policy stance?
• Where will inflation be in two years' time?
• Financial market conditions
• Central bank perceptions

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