Weekly Economic Commentary

New Zealand's economic growth is forecast to remain a modest 1.5% this year, hampered by high energy costs and cautious household spending. However, strong dairy and commodity exports are providing resilience, prompting expectations for further RBNZ interest rate hikes.

Key Takeaways

• 1.New Zealand's economic growth remains subdued at 1.5% with the outlook dampened by oil price rises and household caution.
• 2.Export sectors, particularly dairy, show resilience which helps offset domestic headwinds.
• 3.Westpac anticipates three RBNZ Official Cash Rate hikes by the end of 2026 due to persistent inflation concerns.

Table of Contents

• New Zealand's economy is slouching, not stalling.
• Household caution.
• Businesses squeezed.
• Export sector resilience.
• Mixed activity, but firmness in inflation.
• Chart of the week.
• Fixed versus floating for mortgages.
• Global wrap
• Financial markets wrap
• Economic and financial forecasts
• Data calendar

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