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June 29, 2026

Australia & New Zealand Weekly

Weekly UpdateCommoditiesFXRates Govt BondsEnergyReal Estate

This report analyzes the economic outlook for Australia and New Zealand, focusing on the RBA's hawkish stance against persistent inflation and the RBNZ's shift toward scaling back OCR hikes due to falling energy prices.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.The RBA is likely to maintain a hawkish stance with a potential 25bp hike in August, driven by concerns that inflation is uncomfortably high.
  • 2.New Zealand's RBNZ is expected to scale back planned OCR hikes following a rapid decline in global energy prices and easing Middle East tensions.
  • 3.Labour markets in Australia are softening slowly, with recent data broadly in line with expectations rather than signaling a game-changing downturn.

Table of Contents

  • Economic Insight: Between a rock and a hard place
  • The Week That Was: Patience is a virtue
  • Focus on New Zealand: RBNZ to scale back OCR hikes as energy prices recede
  • For the week ahead
  • What to watch
  • Looking Further Ahead
  • Corporate Directory

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Authors

Matthew HassanElliot Clarke

Securities

Brent Crude Oil

Themes

Central Bank Policy DivergenceEnergy Market NormalizationInflationary Pressure

Regions

Asia PacificEuropeMiddle EastAustraliaNew ZealandUnited States