Goldilocks Jobs Data in April

The April 2026 jobs report shows a 'Goldilocks' scenario with 123,000 new private-sector jobs and moderate 1.9% annualized wage growth.

Key Takeaways

• 1.April payroll growth of 123,000 is high enough to dismiss recession fears but low enough to avoid inflationary concerns, creating a 'Goldilocks' scenario.
• 2.Average hourly earnings rose at a 1.9% monthly annualized rate, which is well below the 3.5% threshold the author considers consistent with the Fed's 2% inflation target.
• 3.A broad manufacturing revival is underway, driven by CAPEX spending and AI data centers, arrested the previous downward trend in factory jobs.

Table of Contents

• ECONOMY
• Exhibit 1: Private-Sector Job Growth—Health Care vs. Other Sectors
• Exhibit 2: Factory Production Workers and Work Hours

Document Preview

Page 1 of 3

Subscribe for full accessStart Free Trial