The Iran Risk Premium Isn't Gone

Despite market complacency, intelligence reports suggest Iran's military capability remains largely intact, justifying a continued risk premium. The bond market's rising yields signal growing concern over the inflationary consequences of a prolonged conflict.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Market participants have become desensitized and complacent regarding the geopolitical risks of the Iran war, largely due to momentum in AI and earnings.
• 2.A confidential CIA assessment indicates Iran's military and economic resilience is far higher than public rhetoric suggests, with 70-75% of missile capabilities intact.
• 3.The bond market is exhibiting more caution than equities, with the 30-year UST yield approaching the psychological 5% threshold due to inflation persistence.

Table of Contents

• MARKETS
• The Iran Risk Premium Isn't Gone

Document Preview

Page 1 of 2

Subscribe for full accessStart Free Trial