What Past Tech Waves Can Teach Us About AI Market Leadership

UBS analyzes historical technology waves to argue that AI leadership will likely shift from infrastructure providers to platform-based applications. They recommend a diversified approach across the AI supply chain rather than concentrated mega-cap exposure.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Historical tech cycles show that incumbents rarely dominate the subsequent era by default, as they often prioritize protecting existing profit pools over disruption.
• 2.Durable value in tech transitions tends to migrate from hardware infrastructure toward the platforms and monetizable applications built on top of it.
• 3.AI capital expenditure is projected to surge to nearly USD 990bn by 2027, but investors should be wary of overbuild risks in competitive hardware segments.

Table of Contents

• Thought of the day
• What to watch: 2 June
• Caught our attention
• Market update
• Global asset class preferences definitions
• Appendix

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