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June 4, 2026

War and Trade War Costs

Daily UpdateCommoditiesMacro Economic IndicatorsRates Govt BondsIndustrialsConsumer Staples

Paul Donovan analyzes how Middle East war tensions and US trade policy offsets are impacting the agricultural sector and broader market sentiment.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.Rising oil prices due to Middle East tensions are impacting US agriculture through fuel and fertilizer costs.
  • 2.The US administration is using trade policy adjustments, specifically cutting agricultural equipment tariffs, to offset war-related cost increases for farmers.
  • 3.Eurozone inflation data is viewed as a non-event as markets anticipate a likely ECB policy error (rate hike) regardless of signals.

Table of Contents

  • Audio
  • Global asset class preferences definitions
  • Appendix
  • Risk information
  • Generic investment research – Risk information
  • Important Information About Sustainable Investing Strategies
  • External Asset Managers / External Financial Consultants
  • USA

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Authors

Paul Donovan

Securities

Oil

Themes

Geopolitical VolatilityCentral Bank Policy ErrorCorporate Inertia

Regions

North AmericaMiddle EastEuropeUnited StatesIranIsrael