US Economic Perspectives June CPI Preview

UBS projects a -0.25% decline in June headline CPI, led by a sharp drop in energy prices. Core CPI is expected to rise by 0.21%, constrained by pandemic-era seasonal adjustments.

Key Takeaways

• 1.UBS projects a -0.25% one-month change for headline CPI in June, the largest decline since April 2020, driven primarily by falling gasoline prices.
• 2.Core CPI is projected to increase by 0.21% in June, matching the May increase and reflecting the influence of residual seasonality from pandemic years.
• 3.Gasoline prices have fallen 17% since their peak on May 20, serving as the main downward driver for headline inflation.

Table of Contents

• Headline CPI
• Core CPI
• Americas
• Core PCE price inflation stronger than CPI
• Looking ahead: Headline CPI falling again in July
• Required Disclosures
• Analyst Certification
• UBS Global Research Disclaimer

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