Swiss Economy

The SNB maintained its 0% policy rate while signaling decreased dependency on FX interventions for managing geopolitical risks. UBS anticipates the first rate hike to occur by mid-2027.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The SNB maintained its policy rate at 0% and modified its guidance on foreign exchange interventions.
• 2.The first SNB rate hike is projected for mid-2027.
• 3.Downward trends in oil prices have lowered inflation expectations and Swiss government bond yields.

Table of Contents

• SNB policy rate kept at 0%
• Inflation forecast slightly higher
• First rate hike possible in mid-2027
• CHF and yield outlook
• Swiss government bond yields could rebound
• Upside scenario: Weaker CHF
• Downside scenario: Negative rate

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