Swiss Economy

UBS expects the Swiss National Bank to maintain a 0% policy rate at least until March 2027 due to muted inflation and below-trend economic growth. Upward pressure on the Swiss franc is expected to moderate as the European Central Bank tightens policy.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The SNB is expected to maintain its policy rate at 0% at the June meeting due to subdued inflation and limited energy price spillover.
• 2.Tightening by the ECB is expected to ease upward pressure on the Swiss franc, reducing the need for SNB currency interventions.

Table of Contents

• SNB to keep policy rate at 0% amid subdued inflation
• Inflation remains subdued despite energy price shocks
• Economic growth picks up, but slack persists
• ECB tightening to reduce need for FX interventions
• Policy normalization likely only as growth recovers
• Risk scenario: Higher inflation
• Risk scenario: Weaker growth or recession

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