UBS maintains a constructive view on copper, anticipating a market deficit and higher prices in 2H26 despite recent consolidation. Structural supply constraints, particularly in Latin America, are expected to outweigh near-term tariff-related trade distortions.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Copper prices are supported by persistent supply deficits and market structural challenges.
- 2.US tariff uncertainty is distorting trade flows, creating arbitrage between COMEX and LME.
Table of Contents
- Supply shortfall here to stay
- China considerations
- Tariff news
- Positioning
- Appendix
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Authors
Dominic Schnider
Securities
HG
Themes
Supply ShortfallEnergy TransitionUS Tariff Uncertainty
Regions
GlobalLatin AmericaUnited StatesChinaChile