UBS
May 19, 2026
Strategic Allocation to Emerging Markets
Macro ThematicEquitiesRates Govt BondsRates CreditInformation TechnologyFinancials
UBS argues that a regime shift toward higher interest rates and valuation dispersion makes Emerging Markets a critical strategic allocation for institutional investors who are currently underweight.
Key Takeaways
- 1.The global economy is entering a new regime of valuation dispersion and volatile stock-bond correlations, necessitating a shift away from US-centric portfolios toward emerging markets.
- 2.Emerging market assets have shown increased resilience to geopolitical shocks and offer strong risk-adjusted returns due to improved policy credibility and fiscal frameworks.
- 3.Institutional portfolios remain structurally underweight in EM assets, with typical allocations at 5% for equities and 1-3% for debt, well below benchmark weights.
Table of Contents
- EMs: Strong macro fundamentals, balanced policy mix
- Asset class evolution – EM debt
- Asset class evolution – EM equities
- EM asset classes outlook
- EM underweight in institutional portfolios
- Summary
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Authors
Dr. Massimiliano CastelliShamaila KhanPhilipp SalmanSangram Jadhav
Securities
MSCI Emerging Markets IndexSPXJPMorgan GBI-EM IndexBloomberg Global Aggregate Index
Themes
Regime ShiftGeopolitical ResilienceInstitutional UnderweightingActive vs. Passive Inflows
Regions
Asia PacificLatin AmericaMiddle EastChinaIndiaUnited States
