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UBS

May 19, 2026

Strategic Allocation to Emerging Markets

Macro ThematicEquitiesRates Govt BondsRates CreditInformation TechnologyFinancials

UBS argues that a regime shift toward higher interest rates and valuation dispersion makes Emerging Markets a critical strategic allocation for institutional investors who are currently underweight.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.The global economy is entering a new regime of valuation dispersion and volatile stock-bond correlations, necessitating a shift away from US-centric portfolios toward emerging markets.
  • 2.Emerging market assets have shown increased resilience to geopolitical shocks and offer strong risk-adjusted returns due to improved policy credibility and fiscal frameworks.
  • 3.Institutional portfolios remain structurally underweight in EM assets, with typical allocations at 5% for equities and 1-3% for debt, well below benchmark weights.

Table of Contents

  • EMs: Strong macro fundamentals, balanced policy mix
  • Asset class evolution – EM debt
  • Asset class evolution – EM equities
  • EM asset classes outlook
  • EM underweight in institutional portfolios
  • Summary

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Authors

Dr. Massimiliano CastelliShamaila KhanPhilipp SalmanSangram Jadhav

Securities

MSCI Emerging Markets IndexSPXJPMorgan GBI-EM IndexBloomberg Global Aggregate Index

Themes

Regime ShiftGeopolitical ResilienceInstitutional UnderweightingActive vs. Passive Inflows

Regions

Asia PacificLatin AmericaMiddle EastChinaIndiaUnited States