Signal Over Noise: What History Tells Us About the Next Market Leaders

UBS examines historical technological transitions to predict AI market winners, emphasizing that value typically shifts from hardware to platforms and new entrants often displace incumbents.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Incumbents rarely win the next technological era because they are structurally incentivized to protect past leadership rather than disrupt themselves.
• 2.While hardware infrastructure booms occur first, lasting profits typically accrue to the platforms and networks built on top of that hardware layer.
• 3.The winners in the AI era will likely be companies that can transition rapidly to platform mode by owning both intelligence models and applications.

Table of Contents

• Signal over Noise: What history tells us about the next market leaders
• Global asset class preferences definitions
• Appendix
• Risk information

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