Riksbank: What to expect next week

UBS expects the Riksbank to hold rates at 1.75% at the June meeting and postpone rate hikes until 2027. This view contrasts with market pricing and highlights the influence of low domestic inflation despite global energy shocks.

Key Takeaways

• 1.UBS expects the Riksbank to keep interest rates unchanged at 1.75% during the 16/17 June meeting.
• 2.The first Riksbank rate hike is forecasted for June 2027, rather than the 2026 timeframe currently priced by the market.
• 3.Macroeconomic forecasts for Sweden show downward revisions for 2026 GDP and inflation, but upward revisions for 2027.

Table of Contents

• Riksbank: What to expect next week
• We expect unchanged rates on 16/17 June
• First hike only in 2027 - unless SEK depreciates materially
• New Riksbank projections for growth, inflation and policy rate path
• What to watch in the Monetary Policy Report
• Economics
• Valuation Method and Risk Statement
• Required Disclosures
• Analyst Certification
• UBS Global Research Disclaimer