Resilient or Roaring 20s

UBS analysis explores whether 'resilient' or 'roaring' will define the 2020s, concluding that AI-driven productivity gains could lead to a 'Roaring 20s' finale.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The US economy has transitioned from a recession-fear narrative to one of 'resilience', but is now poised to enter a 'roaring' phase driven by AI and investment.
• 2.AI-related capital expenditure is surging, with hyperscalers forecast to invest USD 750bn in 2026 and USD 900bn in 2027.
• 3.A sustained period of 3% productivity growth is possible, enabling a macro regime of 3% growth with 2-3% inflation.

Table of Contents

• Resilient or Roaring 20s?
• Global asset class preferences definitions
• Appendix
• Risk information
• Generic investment research – Risk information

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