UBS
June 11, 2026
Despite Record Electric Car Sales, Oil Demand Holds Up In Norway
Macro ThematicCommoditiesEnergy
Despite Norway achieving record electric car sales (98.6% of new registrations), the country's oil demand has not collapsed due to slow fleet turnover and rising consumption of non-transport oil products. This suggests global oil demand may remain resilient even as EV adoption accelerates.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Record-high electric vehicle (EV) penetration in Norway has had a negligible impact on overall oil demand to date.
- 2.Slow fleet turnover and growth in non-road transportation oil demand (petrochemicals, jet fuel) are offsetting the decline in gasoline/diesel passenger vehicle consumption.
- 3.Global oil demand is expected to continue rising into the 2030s, driven primarily by emerging markets and sectors beyond road transportation.
Table of Contents
- Despite record electric car sales, oil demand holds up in Norway
- Vehicle stock by type of fuel
- Fossil-fuel-powered hybrids used for longer distances
- Norwegian oil demand holds up, despite rising share of zero-emission car sales
- Oil demand growth driven by emerging markets
- Global asset class preferences definitions
- Appendix
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Authors
Giovanni Staunovo
Themes
Energy TransitionEV AdoptionOil Demand Resilience
Regions
GlobalNorway
