UBS expects the palladium market to enter a surplus of 200,000 ounces in 2026, ending a 14-year deficit streak. Consequently, price forecasts have been lowered to USD 1,400/oz.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Palladium is expected to shift into a surplus of approximately 200,000 ounces in 2026 after 14 consecutive years of deficit.
- 2.UBS has reduced its palladium price forecasts to USD 1,400/oz across all tenors due to structural oversupply concerns.
- 3.The surplus is driven by declining autocatalyst demand for internal combustion engine vehicles and rising scrap supply, specifically aided by trade-in schemes in China.
Table of Contents
- CIO View: Palladium
- Market data and forecasts (USD/oz)
- Market balances in palladium
- Appendix
- Risk information
- Generic investment research – Risk information
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Authors
Giovanni StaunovoWayne Gordon
Securities
XPD/USD
Themes
Market OversupplyVehicle ElectrificationCircular Economy / Recycling
Regions
GlobalAsia PacificChinaSwitzerlandSingapore