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UBS

July 8, 2026

NZD: More to come

Market ReportFXOther

The RBNZ has initiated a hiking cycle with a 25bps increase to 2.50%. UBS analysts remain bullish on the NZD and suggest a short position on AUDNZD.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.The RBNZ raised the official cash rate by 25bps to 2.50%, the first hike in three years.
  • 2.UBS maintains an Attractive view on the NZD and expects further tightening with the next hike likely in September.
  • 3.UBS recommends a short position in AUDNZD, targeting 1.18.

Table of Contents

  • CIO View: NZDUSD
  • CIO Forecast- NZDUSD
  • Appendix

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Authors

Teck Leng TanFrederick MellorsTom NashKayden Lee

Securities

NZDUSDAUDNZD

Themes

Monetary Policy Tightening

Regions

Asia PacificNew ZealandUnited States