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UBS

May 20, 2026

Narrowest Rally in Decades

Market ReportEquitiesRates Govt BondsCommoditiesInformation TechnologyEnergy

The S&P 500 recently completed one of its narrowest six-week rallies in 35 years, driven by megacap tech stocks. While UBS remains bullish on AI, they advise investors to scale back overweights in concentrated positions.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.The S&P 500 rally has been historically narrow, with market-cap-weighted performance outpacing equal-weighted by the largest margin in 35 years.
  • 2.Historical precedents show that narrow rallies do not always broaden out quickly, though extreme megacap outperformance often reverses following crises.
  • 3.UBS maintains a positive outlook on the AI trade but recommends scaling back significant overweights to manage concentration risk.

Table of Contents

  • The narrowest rally in decades
  • Global asset class preferences definitions
  • Appendix
  • Risk information
  • Generic investment research – Risk information

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Authors

David LefkowitzNadia LovellMatthew Tormey

Securities

SPX

Themes

Market Breadth & Concentration RiskArtificial Intelligence (AI) Investment Trade

Regions

North AmericaMiddle EastUnited States