Kazakh Credit: Fiscal Reforms and Oil Windfall Drive Sovereign Credit Outlook Upgrade

UBS has upgraded Kazakhstan's sovereign credit outlook to Improving due to robust fiscal reforms and oil windfalls, while maintaining a Stable outlook on national oil company KazMunayGas.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Kazakhstan's sovereign credit outlook is upgraded to Improving from Stable, driven by fiscal reforms and higher oil revenues.
• 2.A new 2026 tax code is expected to increase government revenues by 24%, reducing reliance on the sovereign wealth fund.
• 3.KazMunayGas (KMG) maintains a Stable credit outlook despite positive sovereign momentum, reflecting its role as a state agent.

Table of Contents

• Kazakhstan sovereign credit
• Valuations look tight
• Risks
• KazMunayGas
• Required disclosures
• 3-year Issuer rating history change
• UBS CIO risk views
• UBS CIO valuation views
• Sell recommendations
• For Credit Suisse clients
• Issuer valuation views

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