UBS remains bullish on copper, forecasting prices to reach USD 15,500/mt by mid-2027 driven by a widening 520,000 mt market deficit. Supply constraints in China, Chile, and Indonesia are offsetting mixed demand signals from global manufacturing.
Key Takeaways
- 1.UBS has raised its copper price forecasts, targeting USD 15,500/mt by June 2027.
- 2.The market is facing a significant deficit of 520,000 metric tons in 2026 due to supply disruptions and low refining charges.
- 3.Supply-side constraints include sulfur shortages in China, scrap export retention in Japan, and mining delays in Indonesia.
Table of Contents
- Inventory dynamics
- Positioning considerations
- Appendix
- Risk information
- Generic investment research – Risk information
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Authors
Dominic Schnider, CFA, CAIA
Securities
HGSHFE CopperCOMEX Copper
Themes
Supply Shortages and DisruptionsEnergy Transition and ElectrificationGlobal Trade and Tariffs
Regions
GlobalAsia PacificNorth AmericaChinaUnited StatesChile