UBS has trimmed its gold price forecasts to USD 5,500/oz for late 2026 as rising US yields and USD strength weigh on investor sentiment. Despite near-term technical and fiscal headwinds in India, structural demand from central banks remains a supportive medium-term factor.
Key Takeaways
- 1.UBS has lowered its gold forecasts by USD 200–400/oz to USD 5,500/oz for year-end 2026 due to persistent yield and USD headwinds.
- 2.High US real yields have re-established a negative correlation with gold, reintroducing the factor of 'opportunity cost' for investors.
- 3.India's recent hike in gold import duties from 6% to 15% is expected to act as a headwind for near-term physical demand.
Table of Contents
- Trimming the forecasts
- CIO View: Gold
- Appendix
- Risk information
- Generic investment research – Risk information
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Authors
Dominic SchniderWayne GordonGiovanni Staunovo
Securities
XAU2-year US Treasury
Themes
Opportunity Cost Re-evaluationCentral Bank DiversificationMacroeconomic Headwinds
Regions
North AmericaAsia PacificEuropeUnited StatesIndiaSwitzerland