Global Strategy: 15 Essential Charts

Despite record-breaking IPO volume, the US equity market is not currently at a peak, as IPO activity remains modest relative to market size and net supply stays negative due to buybacks. Market returns will increasingly rely on sustained corporate margins rather than valuation expansion.

Key Takeaways

• 1.2026 is on track to be a record IPO year by dollar volume, but current IPO issuance is modest relative to total market size.
• 2.Net equity supply remains negative, supported by substantial corporate buybacks which act as a valuation floor.
• 3.Valuation tailwinds may fade as capex rises and free cash flow falls, shifting market focus to corporate margins and earnings growth.

Table of Contents

• Record IPO issuance, but not relative to market size nor in deal count
• IPOs are a small part of the 'net' supply of equities, which remains negative
• Earnings can step up where valuations don't, but watch margins
• Global Macro Strategy

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