Global Economics And Strategy Core Convictions

UBS remains constructive on USD and emerging market equities for H2 2026 while maintaining a selective approach to carry trades and rates across G10 and EM.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Constructive on USD despite FOMC hawkishness; expect rangebound trading (EURUSD 1.14 year-end).
• 2.Expect MSCI EM outperformance in H2 2026, driven by Korea and Taiwan.
• 3.Maintain long HUF 10y rates; prefer received 1y1y MXN rate strategy.

Table of Contents

• Highlights this week
• Economics
• Gross-Asset Views
• Valuation Method and Risk Statement
• Required Disclosures
• Analyst Certification
• UBS Global Research Disclaimer

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