Forex and Commodities: Sticking with Net-Energy Exporters

UBS maintains a preference for net-energy exporting currencies (AUD, NOK, BRL, MXN) as oil prices remain elevated due to the Iran war. Central bank easing expectations in the US have been delayed to late 2026 following strong inflation and labor data.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Performance in FX markets is currently driven by energy terms of trade, favoring net-energy exporters like AUD, NOK, BRL, and MXN.
• 2.UBS has delayed Federal Reserve rate cut expectations to December 2026 and March 2027 following resilient US economic data.
• 3.Investment opportunities focus on selling downside risk in AUDUSD and USDCHF, and upside risk in EURSEK.

Table of Contents

• Forex and Commodities
• Yield pickup opportunities of the week
• Data calendar
• Global asset class preferences definitions
• Appendix
• Risk information

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