UBS raised its oil price forecasts as global inventories plunged by 246 million barrels in two months due to ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. The bank sees risks skewed to the upside, with Brent projected at USD 105/bbl by September 2026.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Global observed oil inventories fell by 246 million barrels across March and April, totaling 7.95 billion barrels.
- 2.Total production losses due to Strait of Hormuz restrictions are projected to exceed 1 billion barrels by the end of May.
- 3.UBS has raised Brent crude forecasts to USD 105/bbl for September 2026 due to persistent flow restrictions.
Table of Contents
- Falling oil inventories
- Appendix
- Risk information
- Generic investment research – Risk information
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Authors
Giovanni Staunovo
Securities
Brent Crude OilWTI
Themes
Geopolitical Supply DisruptionsInventory Depletion
Regions
Middle EastNorth AmericaAsia PacificUnited StatesSaudi ArabiaUAE