European Economic Perspectives: ECB Outlook

UBS anticipates a 25bps rate hike from the ECB in June 2026, accompanied by downward GDP growth revisions and upward inflation adjustments in new staff projections.

Key Takeaways

• 1.UBS expects the ECB to hike rates by 25bps to 2.25% at the June 11 meeting.
• 2.New ECB staff projections likely to include downward revisions to GDP growth and upward revisions to inflation.
• 3.The firm views a 50bps rate hike in June as very unlikely, citing weaker inflation dynamics compared to 2022/23.

Table of Contents

• European Economic Perspectives
• ECB: What to expect next week
• 50bps or 75bps rate hikes this year?
• New ECB macro forecasts and alternative scenarios
• Valuation Method and Risk Statement
• Required Disclosures
• Analyst Certification
• UBS Global Research Disclaimer