European Economic Perspectives

UBS expects the ECB to deliver a 25bps rate hike at the June 2026 meeting. The report also highlights anticipated revisions to GDP and inflation projections in light of energy price shifts.

Key Takeaways

• 1.UBS expects the ECB to hike interest rates by 25bps to 2.25% at the 11 June meeting.
• 2.The firm projects a downgrade to 2026/2027 GDP growth and an upgrade to inflation forecasts due to energy price revisions.

Table of Contents

• European Economic Perspectives
• ECB: What to expect next week
• We expect the ECB to hike rates by 25bps to 2.25%
• 50bps or 75bps rate hikes this year?
• New ECB macro forecasts and alternative scenarios
• Valuation Method and Risk Statement
• Required Disclosures
• Analyst Certification:
• UBS Global Research Disclaimer