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UBS

June 18, 2026

Emerging Market Bonds

Market ReportRates CreditEnergy

UBS maintains an 'Attractive' outlook on emerging market bonds, citing strong fundamentals, resilience to geopolitical stress, and attractive yields. The report highlights the easing of US-Iran conflict prospects as a positive catalyst for further stability.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.EM bonds are rated as Attractive due to elevated yields and strong fundamentals.
  • 2.EM bonds demonstrate resilience as a diversifier against developed market fiscal challenges.
  • 3.Credit spreads have tightened significantly, reaching 20-year lows at 225bps.

Table of Contents

  • Emerging market bonds
  • Central scenario
  • Upside scenario
  • Downside scenario
  • Global asset class preferences definitions
  • Appendix

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Authors

Alejo CzerwonkoFrederick MellorsAntoine Geiller

Securities

EMBIG DiversifiedCEMBI Diversified

Themes

Geopolitical VolatilityEmerging Markets Credit FundamentalsStagflationary Risks

Regions

Middle EastEuropeUnited StatesChinaIran