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May 21, 2026

ECB Likely to Respond to Higher Inflation Despite Weak Growth Outlook

Macro ThematicMacro Economic IndicatorsRates Govt BondsOther

The ECB is expected to hike rates in June and July despite a sharp contraction in Eurozone private sector activity, as inflation pressures and supply chain disruptions remain elevated.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.Eurozone private sector activity is contracting, with the composite PMI falling to 47.5 in May, driven by declines in Germany and France.
  • 2.Inflationary pressures remain high, with input costs rising at the fastest pace in three-and-a-half years.
  • 3.The ECB is expected to prioritize fighting inflation over growth concerns, with rate hikes anticipated in June and July.

Table of Contents

  • ECB likely to respond to higher inflation, despite weak growth outlook
  • Global asset class preferences definitions
  • Appendix
  • Risk information
  • Generic investment research – Risk information

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Authors

Dean TurnerMaelle Quillevere

Securities

ECB Policy Rate

Themes

Central Bank HawkishnessStagflationary PressureGeopolitical Supply Chain Risk

Regions

EuropeGermanyFrance