UBS
May 21, 2026
ECB Likely to Respond to Higher Inflation Despite Weak Growth Outlook
Macro ThematicMacro Economic IndicatorsRates Govt BondsOther
The ECB is expected to hike rates in June and July despite a sharp contraction in Eurozone private sector activity, as inflation pressures and supply chain disruptions remain elevated.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Eurozone private sector activity is contracting, with the composite PMI falling to 47.5 in May, driven by declines in Germany and France.
- 2.Inflationary pressures remain high, with input costs rising at the fastest pace in three-and-a-half years.
- 3.The ECB is expected to prioritize fighting inflation over growth concerns, with rate hikes anticipated in June and July.
Table of Contents
- ECB likely to respond to higher inflation, despite weak growth outlook
- Global asset class preferences definitions
- Appendix
- Risk information
- Generic investment research – Risk information
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Authors
Dean TurnerMaelle Quillevere
Securities
ECB Policy Rate
Themes
Central Bank HawkishnessStagflationary PressureGeopolitical Supply Chain Risk
Regions
EuropeGermanyFrance
