UBS anticipates only one further ECB rate hike, favoring high-quality bonds as the market overestimates the tightening cycle. Additionally, India equities have been upgraded to Attractive, and the firm remains bullish on the New Zealand dollar.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Despite hawkish ECB rhetoric, we expect only one more rate hike rather than a sustained cycle due to slowing inflation and economic headwinds.
- 2.Upgraded India equities to Attractive, citing improved cyclical positioning, easing energy pressures, and suppressed foreign positioning.
- 3.The New Zealand dollar is expected to strengthen as the RBNZ maintains a hawkish bias and the economy shows resilience.
Table of Contents
- From the studio
- What to watch: 13 July
- Thought of the day
- Caught our attention
- Market update
- Global asset class preferences definitions
- Appendix
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Authors
Mark HaefeleMaelle QuillevereChristopher SwannElena CecamoreThemis ThemistocleousDaisy Tseng
Securities
German 2-year BundNifty IndexBrent Crude
Themes
ECB Monetary PolicyGeopolitical RiskInflationary Pressures
Regions
EuropeAsia PacificIndiaNew ZealandGermany