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May 26, 2026

Daily Audio: The Bias To Optimism Reasserts Itself

Daily UpdateCommoditiesMacro Economic IndicatorsRates Govt BondsEnergyConsumer Discretionary

Market optimism is rising following progress in US-Iran talks, leading to lower oil prices. Meanwhile, the ECB is weighing higher inflation forecasts and the Fed's path toward rate cuts is being debated in the context of cooling energy costs.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.Progress in Iran-US talks is driving market optimism and contributing to a decline in oil prices.
  • 2.The ECB may raise inflation forecasts due to the impact of the Iran war, though this does not automatically signal immediate rate hikes.
  • 3.Japan's April department store sales indicate consumer resilience in developed economies, particularly in non-oil sectors.

Table of Contents

  • Audio
  • Global asset class preferences definitions
  • Appendix
  • Risk information
  • Generic investment research – Risk information

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Authors

Paul Donovan

Securities

Oil

Themes

Geopolitical De-escalationCentral Bank Policy Pivot

Regions

Middle EastEuropeAsia PacificUnited StatesIranJapan