Colombia: A Polarized Race

Following the May 31 first-round vote, Colombia faces a polarized presidential runoff between market-friendly Abelardo De La Espriella and left-wing Iván Cepeda. The election result will be the primary driver for the Colombian peso and sovereign bond spreads amid high fiscal deficits.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The Colombian presidential election is heading to a runoff on June 21 between market-friendly Abelardo De La Espriella and left-wing Iván Cepeda.
• 2.Colombia faces a narrow path to fiscal consolidation, with the primary deficit at 3.5% of GDP, requiring major adjustments regardless of the winner.
• 3.Currency and bond performance will diverge based on the result: a De La Espriella win favors the peso, while policy continuity under Cepeda could lead to depreciation.

Table of Contents

• Cepeda and De La Espriella are like water and oil
• Voter arguments for and against
• Fiscal balance remains a worry
• Checks and balances still strong
• Investment implications
• Global asset class preferences definitions
• Appendix
• Risk information

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