Report published June 1, 2026

Colombia: A Polarized Race - UBS Macro Thematic Report (June 2026)

UBS · June 1, 2026

Following the May 31 first-round vote, Colombia faces a polarized presidential runoff between market-friendly Abelardo De La Espriella and left-wing Iván Cepeda. The election result will be the primary driver for the Colombian peso and sovereign bond spreads amid high fiscal deficits.

Read the full report

Read the remaining 4 pages

View Report Sign in

Finvaulta summarizes UBS's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.The Colombian presidential election is heading to a runoff on June 21 between market-friendly Abelardo De La Espriella and left-wing Iván Cepeda.
2.Colombia faces a narrow path to fiscal consolidation, with the primary deficit at 3.5% of GDP, requiring major adjustments regardless of the winner.
3.Currency and bond performance will diverge based on the result: a De La Espriella win favors the peso, while policy continuity under Cepeda could lead to depreciation.

Cepeda and De La Espriella are like water and oil
Voter arguments for and against
Fiscal balance remains a worry
Checks and balances still strong
Investment implications
Global asset class preferences definitions
Risk information

Report data

Deterioration in public finances

Metric	Estimate	Context
De La Espriella first-round vote share	43.7%	Result of the first round of the presidential election.
Iván Cepeda first-round vote share	40.9%	Result of the first round of the presidential election.
Primary deficit as % of GDP	3.5%	Fiscal balance at level not seen since the pandemic.
Coca cultivation area increase	70%	Growth in illicit drug production impacting security.
USD sovereign bond spreads	235 bps	Tightening of spreads over US Treasuries.