UBS maintains a bullish outlook for gold, forecasting a year-end target of USD 5,900/oz as temporary pressures from a strong US dollar and high energy prices are expected to fade.
Key Takeaways
- 1.UBS expects gold to reach USD 5,900/oz by the end of 2026, despite recent price consolidation.
- 2.Current gold weakness (16% below January highs) is driven by high energy prices, US dollar strength, and rising real yields.
- 3.Fundamental demand remains robust, characterized by record physical buying by individuals and continued strong central bank purchases.
Table of Contents
- Key message
- 01 Gold remains well below its January highs.
- 02 But we remain confident that gold prices will move higher.
- 03 We expect gold prices to reach USD 5,900/oz by year-end.
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Authors
Giovanni StaunovoDominic SchniderWayne GordonJon GordonMatthew Carter
Securities
XAUUS Dollar
Themes
Geopolitical HedgingCentral Bank DiversificationReal Yields and Opportunity Cost
Regions
North AmericaMiddle EastGlobalUnited StatesIran